Greece's Wholesale Electricity Market in Transition: The Export Paradox

The Greek wholesale electricity market has undergone significant changes over the past five years, driven by the rapid expansion of renewable energy generation and increasing integration with regional electricity markets. During this period, wholesale electricity prices declined substantially from the exceptional levels observed during the 2022 energy crisis, while Greece's position within Southeast Europe's electricity market evolved considerably. For the first time, the country recorded a sustained net export position, supported by growing renewable electricity production and enhanced cross-border market participation. At the same time, higher renewable penetration has contributed to changing market dynamics, including wider intraday price differentials, increasing periods of surplus generation, and a growing need for system flexibility. Using market data from 2021 to May 2026, this article examines the key trends shaping the Greek wholesale electricity market and discusses their implications for electricity trade, price formation, energy security, and future market development.